The Organised Private Sector on Monday welcomed the decline in the rate of inflation in Nigeria, but quickly pointed out that the hardship across the country has failed to abate.

According to the latest Consumer Price Index released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday, Nigeria’s inflation eased for the second consecutive month in October as new base-year adjustments and moderating food prices helped pull headline pressure lower.

The report stated that the headline inflation rate fell to 16.05 per cent in October from 18.02 per cent in September, marking a 1.96-percentage-point moderation. The CPI reading rose slightly to 128.9 points from 127.7 in September, indicating that prices are still increasing but at a slower annual pace.

The current inflation rate of 16.05 per cent is the lowest in three years and eight months, since 15.92 per cent in March 2022.

On a year-on-year basis, inflation weakened sharply by 17.82 percentage points from the 33.88 per cent recorded in October 2024, largely due to the shift to a new base year. Despite the respite in the annual figure, monthly inflation climbed. Month-on-month inflation accelerated to 0.93 per cent in October from 0.72 per cent in September, showing that price pressures at the household level remain sticky.

OPS speaks

Organised Private Sector groups told The PUNCH that although the October inflation report shows a positive trend, the high cost of goods and services continues to make living conditions hard for millions of Nigerians.

The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, welcomed the deceleration but warned that the gains remain overshadowed by persistent structural challenges.

“The sharp moderation in Nigeria’s October 2025 inflation rate represents a significant win for macroeconomic stability. However, the full welfare benefits are yet to be sufficiently felt by households due to the persistent structural constraints—especially in food supply, transportation, energy, housing, and essential services.

“To ensure that disinflation translates into real cost-of-living relief, Nigeria must undertake deliberate and sustained reforms across critical sectors. With coordinated monetary, fiscal, and structural policies, the current trajectory can be strengthened, broadened, and sustained,” he stated.

President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, Dr Femi Egbesola, argued that the inflation dip has not produced tangible relief for families or businesses. “All of this has not translated to tangible results in the lives of households and small businesses. It has been very tough, and it is even getting tougher,” he stressed.

ASBON’s president blamed the situation on harsh operating conditions and said many small firms are shutting down. Egbesola urged the Federal Government to move beyond “paper data,” warning, “Nigerians cannot continue to endure this issue for a long time. Many of them are at the point of elastic limits. Government must move beyond data and statistics and make meaningful, tangible impacts on the common man.”

Additionally, the Director-General of the Nigerian Association of Small and Medium Enterprises, Eke Ubiji, also dismissed the inflation numbers as disconnected from market realities. He said prices of essential items remain out of reach for many Nigerians. Ubiji stated, “Inflation is still very high. Send people to the market now. A half-bag of rice goes for N30,000. Before, a full bag was about N20,000. So are we moving forward or backwards?”

He accused the Central Bank of lacking practical inflation-targeting strategies, saying, “There is no relationship between what is sustainable in the market and what they are quoting in their boardrooms. The reality on the ground is a different thing.”

Ubiji added that the high costs are weakening SMEs’ bottom lines and shrinking the purchasing power of customers, adding, “The cost of the products of the SMEs is still very high. It may not be within the reach of the common man so easily.”

Despite the sharp moderation in inflation, OPS leaders insisted that Nigerians continue to face severe cost-of-living pressure. They urged the government to prioritise structural reforms in food supply, transportation, energy, and security to ensure that the easing of inflation translates into real and visible price relief.

President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Gabriel Idahosa, stated that the data indicated a pattern of disinflation, but admitted that the relief remains weak for many households. He said, “A trend is being established. That’s important. The prices of some food items have come down slightly, and a major staple like rice has seen a notable reduction. So the trend is beginning to manifest slowly in the marketplace.”

He acknowledged that Nigerians often doubt inflation numbers because they do not see changes in their daily food consumption. Still, the LCCI insisted that the prices of staples, such as rice, show early improvement. Idahosa said, “Nigerians say inflation is coming down, but we are not seeing it on our dining table. But this trend is beginning to manifest. We expect to see more trickles of the major economic metrics in the cost of living.”

He linked the easing inflation to a stable exchange rate, rising non-oil exports, and increasing domestic production, especially in refined petroleum products and rice paddy. He maintained that the positive direction will likely continue, saying, “Most of the factors driving this trend are not reversible. We expect the naira to keep getting stronger and imports of refined products to reduce to zero, possibly by the start of next year.”

Also, economists pushed back against the sharp drop in Nigeria’s headline inflation for October, warning that the decline reflects statistical adjustments rather than any real relief for households already struggling with high living costs.

Reacting to the new Consumer Price Index figures, a Professor of Development Economics at the University of Lagos, Femi Saibu, said the government’s change of the CPI base year may have made inflation appear to be falling “to the eyes,” but Nigerians are still facing the same price pressures.

Saibu explained that adjusting the base year does not change the underlying cost of goods, likening it to “standing on a table or the bare floor — your height doesn’t change.” He said the new methodology creates the impression of easing inflation even though the actual cost burden on households remains unchanged.

According to him, people care about what they pay, not statistical fluctuations, adding that households have continued to face steep increases without proportional income growth.

He warned that the current inflation pattern is driven by weaker demand rather than stronger supply. Saibu argued that government policies have squeezed household liquidity, leaving them with less cash to buy goods.

This, he said, artificially lowers observed inflation because “people are not buying, demand is falling, and supply has not changed.” He described the situation as an economy “stable at the wrong point,” where both buyers and suppliers are suffering. “Suppliers are not selling, buyers are not buying, and the economy is stalled,” he said.

He also noted that prices appear to be falling in some places only because producers have more perishable goods on their hands, warning that prices will rise again once fresh supply pressures emerge.

On monetary policy, Saibu said he does not expect the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria to cut rates at its next meeting despite the new inflation figures. He argued that the MPC prioritises stability and credibility and may prefer to maintain current rates or even act against market expectations to curb speculation.

In a separate reaction, development economist and Chief Executive of CSA Advisory, Aliyu Ilias, questioned the realism of the latest inflation numbers, especially the sharp moderation in food inflation to 13 per cent.

He noted that Nigerians’ lived reality does not reflect such a dramatic easing, given the persistent rise in staple food prices across markets. Ilias said the inflation report should be interpreted with caution, adding that methodological changes may have contributed to the sudden decline.

On expectations for next week’s MPC meeting, he said the committee may consider a rate cut of around 25 per cent, given the drop in inflation. However, he stressed that any monetary easing should be weighed carefully against broader economic conditions.

Meanwhile, the NBS noted that the average CPI for the 12 months ending October stood at 22.02 per cent, down from 32.26 per cent a year earlier.

Urban consumers experienced a steeper rise in month-to-month prices than their rural counterparts. Urban inflation rose to 1.14 per cent in October from 0.74 per cent in September, though its yearly reading eased to 15.65 per cent from 36.38 per cent in October 2024.

Rural inflation slowed to 15.86 per cent annually but decelerated month-on-month to 0.45 per cent from 0.67 per cent, making rural markets the more stable segment of the price distribution in the period under review.

Food inflation, the dominant driver of hardship for most households, fell sharply to 13.12 per cent year-on-year in October, from 39.16 per cent in the same month last year. The bureau linked this sharp decline to the base-year change rather than a substantial improvement in real food costs.

However, month-on-month food inflation rose by 1.21 percentage points to –0.37 per cent from –1.57 per cent in September, reflecting renewed pressure on items such as onions, oranges, pineapple, shrimp, groundnuts, vegetables, goat meat, cow tail, and liver.

The 12-month average food inflation rate slipped to 21.96 per cent from 38.12 per cent in October 2024. Core inflation, which excludes farm produce and energy, stood at 18.69 per cent year-on-year, down from 28.37 per cent a year earlier.

Month-on-month core inflation was broadly unchanged at 1.416 per cent in October, compared with 1.417 per cent in September, signalling persistent structural pressures from transport, education, healthcare, housing, communication, and personal care services.

At the state level, Ekiti posted the highest all-items inflation at 20.14 per cent, followed by Nasarawa at 18.97 per cent and Zamfara at 18.81 per cent. Bauchi (9.99 per cent), Anambra (11.72 per cent), and Gombe (11.73 per cent) recorded the slowest rise in headline inflation.

On a monthly basis, Niger and Anambra registered the sharpest price increases at 4.90 per cent each, while Edo, Katsina, and Adamawa recorded notable declines. Food inflation also varied widely across the states.

Ogun, Nasarawa, and Ekiti led with the highest food inflation rates, while Akwa Ibom, Katsina, and Yobe recorded the slowest annual increases. Bauchi, Abuja, and Niger recorded the steepest month-to-month food price jumps, while Katsina, Oyo, and Taraba saw sharp drops.