Governorship Election: 4 reasons APC may lose Kogi

The Kogi state governorship election is on Saturday, November 11, 2023. It is arguably the most anticipated off-cycle poll.

According to Nigeria's electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the Kogi governorship election will be contested alongside the contests in Imo and Bayelsa states.

The current Kogi governor, Yahaya Bello, is expected to leave office on January 27, 2024. He is in his second term in office.

Dino Melaye, Ahmed Usman Ododo, and others battle for the coveted seat at the Government House, Lokoja.

The winning candidate must secure the majority of the vote and at least 25% of the vote in two-thirds of the local government areas (LGAs). Kogi state has 21 LGAs. Results would be announced by INEC at a state collation centre.

Leaders and chieftains of the leading parties are optimistic and have boasted about their chances of winning the November poll.

In this report, Legit.ng writes on reasons why the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) may lose Kogi.

1) Alleged ploy of governance by proxy

Some opposition members believe Governor Bello, is seeking a third term through a proxy. Bello is backing his party, the APC’s candidate, Alhaji Ahmed Usman Ododo, to succeed him. However, Ododo’s opponents believe the incumbent governor is tacitly trying to remain in power through Ododo.

2) Antagonism from disgruntled APC governorship hopefuls

APC candidate, Ododo, a former auditor-general for local government in Kogi state, enjoys the advantage of being the only candidate from the central senatorial district. He also has the support of Governor Bello and his party (the APC), which is Nigeria’s governing party. He is, however, faced with opposition from some members of his party who lost out in the primaries.

3) APC candidate not from largest voting bloc

The Social Democratic Party (SDP) candidate, Muritala Yakubu Ajaka — and not APC’s Ododo — comes from the region with the highest number of voters and population, the eastern senatorial district. Kogi East (Igala Kingdom) is the stronghold of Ajaka, who some 'Kogites' consider one of the likely winners.

4) PDP’s capability in Kogi

The capability of Nigeria’s main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to wrest power from the APC cannot be discountenanced. Since the nation returned to democratic rule in 1999, the PDP has been in power in Kogi four times, while the APC has steered two successive administrations (Governor Bello’s). When their stalwarts (APC) fancy their chances, they are not fantasising.