Nigeria’s lingering power outages, which have persisted for weeks and are being experienced across the country, are primarily due to inadequate gas supply to thermal power plants, the Nigerian Independent System Operator announced on Friday, attributing the sustained drop in electricity generation to severe fuel constraints affecting the national grid.

In a statement titled “Declining Power Output Attributable to Generation Shortfalls and Gas Supply Limitations,” released on its official X handle, the system operator said average available generation currently hovers around 4,300 megawatts, far below the country’s installed capacity.

As background, the lingering power outages began in early February following a scheduled maintenance exercise on key gas supply infrastructure by Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and Seplat Energy, which temporarily disrupted gas deliveries to several thermal power plants and triggered a nationwide drop in electricity generation.

The situation has since persisted due to continued constraints in gas supply, worsening the power shortfall across the country.

The statement, signed by the NISO Management, explained that the development is directly linked to severe gas constraints affecting thermal generating stations, which account for the dominant share of Nigeria’s electricity generation mix.

“We hereby notify the general public and all market participants that the current average available generation of approximately 4,300MW is primarily due to inadequate gas supply to thermal generating stations,” the operator stated.

It stressed that because thermal plants form the backbone of grid supply, any disruption in gas availability automatically translates into lower generation and weaker energy allocation to Distribution Companies.

“Given that thermal plants account for the dominant share of Nigeria’s generation mix, any disruption or limitation in gas supply directly affects available generation capacity and overall grid output,” the statement read.

Providing operational data to justify the drop in supply, NISO disclosed that thermal power plants collectively require an estimated 1,629.75 million standard cubic feet of gas per day to function at optimal capacity.

However, as of February 23, 2026, actual gas supply to the plants stood at approximately 692.00 million standard cubic feet per day. The operator described the deficit as significant.

“The available gas supply represents less than 43 per cent of the required volume, resulting in constrained generation output. The current low generation level is fundamentally driven by inadequate gas supply to thermal generating units, leading to reduced energy allocation to the DisCos,” it stated.

The development implies that more than half of the gas needed to power thermal plants daily is currently unavailable, severely limiting the volume of electricity that can be dispatched to homes and businesses nationwide.

With supply falling short of demand, NISO confirmed that it has been compelled to implement load shedding to stabilise the grid.

“When total system generation drops significantly, the Independent System Operator must implement load shedding across the system, while dispatching available energy in line with the NERC MYTO allocation percentages across all distribution networks to maintain grid stability and prevent system disturbances,” the statement added.

The operator expressed regret over the inconvenience to electricity consumers and market participants but assured that it is engaging relevant stakeholders to restore supply levels.

“While we regret the inconvenience this situation may cause electricity consumers and affected market participants, we will continue to work closely with relevant stakeholders to ensure full energy allocation as soon as gas supply improves and generation capacity is restored,” it stated.

Nigeria’s power sector remains heavily dependent on gas-fired thermal plants, which account for over 70 per cent of grid electricity, with hydropower contributing the balance. This structural reliance means that disruptions in gas production, pipeline vandalism, maintenance shutdowns, pricing disputes, or payment shortfalls within the electricity value chain often trigger immediate nationwide supply constraints.

Over the years, gas supply limitations have been attributed to a combination of upstream production challenges, legacy debts owed by GenCos to gas suppliers, foreign exchange pressures affecting gas pricing, and infrastructure bottlenecks.

The power sector has also grappled with liquidity challenges, with generating companies repeatedly warning that inadequate remittances from Distribution Companies affect their ability to meet obligations to gas suppliers.

Although recent reforms separated the system operator from the Transmission Company of Nigeria to strengthen grid management and market transparency, generation capacity remains largely tied to fuel availability.

With national peak demand estimated at well above 20,000MW, the current 4,300MW average generation underscores the significant supply gap confronting Africa’s most populous nation.

A sustained improvement in electricity supply will depend not only on grid management reforms but also on securing stable and commercially viable gas supply arrangements to thermal plants.

For now, electricity consumers across the country may continue to experience outages and rationing until gas deliveries improve and generation capacity rebounds.