Farmers have warned of a worsening food affordability crisis as Nigeria’s food inflation climbed to a six-month high of 20.31 per cent in July, with poultry producers reporting that thousands of crates of eggs are being wasted weekly amid weak consumer demand.

The farmers said the worsening situation was squeezing producers from both ends as rising energy, transportation, fertiliser and other input costs increased production expenses. Meanwhile, declining consumer purchasing power has made it difficult to sell food at prices that would cover their costs.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that food inflation increased for the sixth consecutive month, rising from 8.89 per cent in January to 12.12 per cent in February, before hitting 20.31 per cent in July.

The increase came despite a slowdown in headline inflation, which fell from 15.93 per cent in May to 15.91 per cent in June and 15.43 per cent in July. The divergence has heightened concerns among agricultural stakeholders that easing headline inflation has yet to translate into affordable food for households.

On a month-on-month basis, food inflation also accelerated to 5.56 per cent in July from 3.75 per cent in June. The NBS attributed the increase to rising prices of crayfish, fresh pepper, onions, carrots, rice, water yam, tomatoes, garri, plantain, beef, eggs, guinea corn, ginger and plantain flour.

Although July’s food inflation remained below the 26.20 per cent recorded in July 2025, the latest increase represents an 8.19 percentage-point rise from the 12.12 per cent recorded in February.

In a phone interview with The PUNCH, the Chairman of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s Agricultural and Allied Group, Tunde Banjoko, said the trend pointed to an emerging affordability problem driven by rising production costs.

“Inflation has jumped from about 8.8 per cent in January to about 20 per cent in July, increasing virtually every month while the headline inflation is trying to stabilise around 15-16 per cent.

“I think one major factor this year, besides the structural issues that we all know, will be the increase in energy and fuel cost influenced by the US-Israeli war against Iran. That conflict has affected the cost of transportation largely, and the cost of operations on the farm has also increased,” Banjoko said.

He said rising energy costs had also worsened fertiliser supply and limited farmers’ ability to meet production targets. “That has also affected the cost and availability of fertilisers. So, a nation that was still battling with low supply is now facing a lower supply, and affordability is also becoming an issue. Most farms are not able to meet their production target, so that could have led to what is driving the cost at this time,” the LCCI Agric chief said.

Banjoko said insecurity, flooding and expensive financing had continued to compound the challenges facing farmers. “It’s largely a result of the ongoing war and a structural problem. We started seeing security issues; we still have flooding, they’re still contributing to this, and the cost of finance is still a challenge. So, I think for this period, energy and fuel cost will be the main issue, which is influenced by the US-Iran war,” he said.

The crisis has also exposed a paradox in the poultry industry, where producers are struggling to sell eggs even as food inflation continues to rise.

In another phone interview, the Chairman of the Poultry Association of Nigeria, Lagos State Chapter, Mojeed Iyiola, said farmers were being forced to reduce egg prices because consumers could no longer absorb their output.

“In my line of the food business, anytime we have a drop in the sales of eggs, we normally beat the price down because eggs are a perishable item. It can’t stay for long,” Iyiola told The PUNCH.

He said the weak demand had destroyed thousands of crates of eggs every week, worsening losses for farmers. “So, farmers are suffering seriously because thousands of crates of eggs are being buried every week, due to on-sales. When it happens like that, we normally beat the price down at least for easy consumption.

“In our own case, our prices are not going up. Rather, it comes down for us to dispose of as many crates of eggs as we can. The poultry farmers are the ones that are doing business at a loss,” the PANLAG chairman said.

The situation has left poultry farmers caught between rising production costs and weak demand, with producers unable to reduce feeding costs without affecting egg production.

Iyiola said farmers who had borrowed from banks were particularly vulnerable because losses from unsold and spoiled eggs could threaten their ability to repay their loans.

“We are seriously running at a loss because we can’t be looking at the products that are supposed to give us the feedback as far as the monetary aspect is concerned, getting spoiled,” he said.

He said farmers had to continue feeding their birds despite weak sales because stopping production would create an even bigger loss.

“At their best, they must take the quantity of feed per day. Otherwise, they will stop laying eggs. If you are assigning the feed for them and they stop laying, that’s a complete loss for the farmer. So rather, we need to be giving them feed, let them be producing,” he said.

The food inflation figures show that the pressure has intensified even as the broader inflation rate moderates.

Food inflation rose from 12.12 per cent in February to 14.31 per cent in March, 16.06 per cent in April, 16.96 per cent in May, 17.52 per cent in June and 20.31 per cent in July.

Over the same period, headline inflation moved from 15.06 per cent in February to 15.38 per cent in March, 15.69 per cent in April, 15.93 per cent in May, 15.91 per cent in June and 15.43 per cent in July.

The figures indicate that food inflation rose by 8.19 percentage points between February and July, while headline inflation increased by only 0.37 percentage points over the same period.

However, farmers recognise that the problem goes beyond the inflation statistics as rising input costs and falling purchasing power threaten both production and access to food.

The July month-on-month food inflation rate of 5.56 per cent, which exceeded June’s 3.75 per cent by 1.82 percentage points, further underscored the pressure on food prices.

The stakeholders warned that unless authorities address energy costs, fertiliser availability, transportation, financing and other structural constraints, the widening gap between food inflation and headline inflation could deepen the affordability crisis while leaving farmers to absorb mounting losses.