The federal government’s ability to meet up with its targeted revenue of N41trn to foot the 2025 budget is becoming a tall order with the instability in the global price of oil.

This is even as the government has met the production quota given by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) thrice during the year.

Analysis showed that between April and August, the global oil price experienced a significant drop, influenced by a combination of factors including weakening demand and increased supply.

The decline was particularly notable in August, with prices falling below $70 per barrel for Brent crude, as such, Daily Trust highlights the month-by-month timeline of the decline between April and August.

April 2025: Sharp losses after OPEC+ boosts output

On April 3, oil prices plunged over 6%, with Brent crude dipping to approximately $70.34 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $66.95, following an OPEC+ decision to boost production.

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On April 8, WTI closed below $60—as low as $58.95—and Brent fell to $63.15, hitting the weakest levels since 2021.

On April 9, Brent momentarily dropped as low as $58.46, though it later recovered to $64.82.

May 2025: Slight rebound amid trade optimism

Prices rebounded slightly—Brent to $63.91, WTI to $61.02—after a positive U.S.–UK trade deal and optimism about improving U.S.–China relations.

Modest volatility; Brent oscillated between $64.78–$65.41, while WTI ranged $60.79–$62.49, amid concerns over OPEC+ increasing output.

June 2025: Forecasts cut despite geopolitical tensions

In June, forecasts were trimmed from $72 to $63 amid expected oversupply and weak demand.

Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, which could have caused prices to surge beyond $100–$150—but markets saw prices remain subdued under $70 by June 23.

August 2025: Multi-year lows as demand weakens

According to a report on Majorwaves Energy, Brent crude fell below $70 per barrel, reaching its lowest price since December 2021.

WTI also experienced a significant drop, settling at $66.06 per barrel.

The price decline was linked to concerns about weakening oil demand in major economies like the United States and China.

Impact on Nigeria’s fiscal plan

The decline could further put Nigeria’s fiscal plan, especially for the 2025 financial year, in serious jeopardy.

Daily Trust reports that President Bola Tinubu while presenting the 2025 budget projected a crude oil price of $75 per barrel and 2.1m barrel per day production. However these projections are far from being achieved as the country approaches the last quarter of the year.

With already limited revenue streams and heavy dependence on oil

earnings, a worsening fiscal outlook would not only deepen the Federal Government’s budget deficit but also strain its ability to finance critical sectors such as infrastructure, healthcare, and education.

It could compel the government to rely more heavily on borrowing, thereby increasing debt servicing obligations and limiting fiscal flexibility.

In turn, this may undermine investor confidence, exert pressure on the naira, and heighten inflationary risks, ultimately complicating the implementation of economic reforms and social programmes.

Speaking with Daily Trust, the CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, said the government not meeting its revenue targets will lead to increase in fiscal deficit.

Muda said the ideal thing will have been to align expenditure with revenue, even when the expenditures have been appropriated for.

He however, said if the government decides to stick to the expenditure plan in the face of dwindling revenue, then the fiscal deficit would increase and that is not good for the economy.

“It means you have to borrow more, you have to incur more on debt service, that will affect other things that you are supposed to do and we don’t want to see an Increasing debt burden rising from increasing debt service.”

He added that while the government is still implementing 2024 budget using 2025 revenue, the capital component of the budget is at risk, adding that if this volatility in oil price continues, the situation may remain like that for some time.

“But the important thing is that it poses a major risk to budget implementation. We just have to be more realistic in our assumptions and possibly more conservative, especially when it comes to revenue assumptions, it’s good to have high aspirations, maybe for agencies and all of that, you can set a target for them that is high, but when you are preparing the budget, in other to have a realistic budget, you have to also be real in the assumption, it is better to be for your expectations to be surpassed than for expectations to not be met.”

He added, “Worst case scenario is that it may increase our deficit, that’s if it did not moderate expenditure, the ideal thing would have been to align expenditure with revenue, even when you have expenditures that have been appropriated for, if there’s no revenue to back it up, the best thing is to scale down the expenditure.

“But if we stick to the expenditure plan in the face of dwindling revenue, then the fiscal deficit needs to increase and that is not good for the economy, it means you have to borrow more, you have to incur more on debt service, that will affect other things that you are supposed to do and we don’t want to see an increasing debt burden arising from increasing debt service.”

Meanwhile, the Group Chief Executive Officer, NNPC Limited, Engr. Bashir Bayo Ojulari, has stated that beyond production volumes, the future of Nigeria’s oil and gas industry rests on strong Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) practices.

The GCEO made this known while delivering a keynote address themed “Building a Resilient Oil and Gas Sector in Nigeria: Advancing HSE, ESG, Investors and Incremental Production,” at the 2025 Petroleum & Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) Energy and Labour Summit.

He explained that resilience for the Nigerian oil and gas sector must translate into concrete reforms across operations, governance, and partnerships.

He stressed the need for stakeholder alignment to unlock stranded assets and boost incremental production through smarter, coordinated actions across the value chain.

He called for collaboration between PENGASSAN, labour unions, investors, government and industry stakeholders towards assuring stability, de-risking the environment and creating conditions for sustainable growth.

“With the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), we now have a framework to transform our investment climate. NNPC Limited is now operating under a new business model, focused on value creation, competitiveness, and efficiency. This includes restructuring joint ventures, monetizing assets, and investing in critical infrastructure across the value chain.”

“Today, oil and gas companies are judged not only by what they produce, but how they produce it. Environmental stewardship, social responsibility, and sound governance are now critical metrics for accessing capital, winning community support, and sustaining growth. NNPC Limited has initiated an Energy Transition Roadmap—reducing our carbon footprint, investing in gas as a transition fuel, and improving transparency.” he revealed

“Every additional barrel and gas molecule contributes directly to national prosperity and energy security,” he added.

While commending PENGASSAN for its pivotal role in strengthening Nigeria’s energy workforce, the GCEO reaffirmed NNPC Ltd.’s commitment to innovation, collaboration, and national development urging all stakeholders to embrace resilience as a deliberate choice for the future.