An X user, @RealKiingLu, has given a breakdown which explains why some Nigerians on social media are saying that Afrobeats music genre is in decline.

In recent days, some have been on social media with the opinion that Afrobeats is no longer getting support from foreign investors, adding that the local industry was neglected during the boom the genre experienced.

In his position, Kiing Lu revealed how technological shift and dumping of old traditions contributed to the decline of Afrobeats.

Read below


Nigeria hasn’t fully embraced music streaming.

And it’s one of the biggest reasons the music business is becoming harder to sustain locally.

Coming from someone who worked in the Alaba distribution era.

Wait I will explain, stay with me

Before streaming, breaking a song in Nigeria was straightforward.

You needed:

• Alaba mixtape distribution
• Radio promotion
• TV promotion
• Club & DJ activations
• Blog PR (NotJustOk, Tooxclusive, Jaguda)

That ecosystem ran the industry.

I was part of that era.

We helped artists distribute music through Alaba mixtapes nationwide and negotiated advances with Alaba marketers.

It was a completely different music economy.

Then came TikTok and Triller.

This changed the industry completely.

Virality became a major growth engine.

Influencers started building audiences and monetizing them.

Soon, TikTok campaigns became one of the most expensive marketing tools in the industry.

Labels started spending huge budgets just to trigger a viral moment.

The upside:
The industry became more democratized.

The downside:
Virality sometimes started replacing actual talent.

Some A&Rs began signing trendy artists instead of long-term talent.

Huge advances were paid based on momentum.

Today many of those deals are hard to recoup.

Now people say:

“Afrobeats is declining.”

But the real problem might be something else.

The Nigerian market itself struggles to generate enough revenue.

First issue: consumer mindset.

Many Nigerians still resist paying for music subscriptions.

We prefer free or extremely cheap access.

Lower subscriptions automatically mean lower payouts to artists.

Which makes the entire ecosystem harder to sustain.

Example:

Apple Music reportedly has around 3M subscribers or less in Nigeria.

Out of 200M+ people.

Yet we use Apple Music Top 100 as a major success metric.

Meanwhile millions of grassroots listeners don’t even use Apple Music.

So you sometimes see this strange situation:

An artist is Top 5 on Apple Music

…but many people on the streets don’t know the song

Another issue affecting the ecosystem:

Stream farming.

Some artists inflate streaming numbers to appear bigger to labels and investors.

Investors see the numbers and believe the artist is huge.

Big advances are paid.

Then reality hits.

The artist can’t even sell 1,000 tickets.

Now let’s talk economics.

Labels spend heavily promoting music in Nigeria.

But streaming revenue alone rarely covers the marketing spend.

Artists still invest in Nigeria because of relevance.

If you dominate Nigeria, your music can travel across:

Africa
UK
US diaspora markets.

Local popularity leads to:

• Endorsement deals
• Higher show fees
• Bigger collaborations

So the attention economy still makes Nigeria important.

But here’s the uncomfortable comparison.

15 years ago artists made serious money selling CDs locally.

Let’s do the math.

3M CDs × ₦200 per copy
= ₦600M

Now compare that to streaming.

3M Apple Music streams in Nigeria
≈ under $9k

Spotify
≈ $2k – $6k

This is why some people in the industry believe we might see another shift.

Not away from streaming globally but a different model locally.

There are already quiet conversations about:

• Physical formats (vinyl / CDs)
• Paid download platforms
• Alternative monetization systems for local consumers.

So we might eventually see two systems:

Physical or downloads for the local market

Streaming for the global market

Sounds funny…

…but it’s possible.

The Nigerian music industry has reinvented itself many times:

Cassette era
CD era
Blog era
Streaming era
TikTok era

The next shift might already be coming.

Curious question:

Do you think Nigerians will ever fully embrace paid streaming?

Or will the industry eventually need a different local monetization model?