Fuel security slowed in October as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery supplied only an average of 17.1 million litres per day of the nation’s petrol needs, forcing the country to rely heavily on imports despite earlier hopes of self-sufficiency. The Federal Government, through its Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, revealed this.

The regulator, in its just-released October 2025 Fact Sheet on the state of the midstream and downstream sector, disclosed that the Dangote refinery supplied only 512.4 million litres of petrol in October, far below the 1.5 billion litres required to meet the country’s monthly demand. This left imported refined products to fill the gap, contributing an average of 27.6 million litres daily.

The report obtained by our correspondent on Sunday showed that marketers had to import a total of 828 million litres of petrol during the month to meet the national daily supply requirement of 50 million litres. It also showed that national petrol consumption rose to 56.74 million litres per day, indicating a sustained increase in demand despite efforts to promote greater domestic production.

The figures reaffirmed a persistent pattern in which imported petrol remains Nigeria’s dominant supply source, despite the commencement of operations at the Lekki-based Dangote Refinery in September 2024. The development also comes despite repeated assurances by officials of the Dangote Refinery that its output would be sufficient to meet the country’s petrol demand.

On November 1, 2025, officials of the refinery reaffirmed their commitment to ensuring a steady and uninterrupted supply of petrol and diesel across the country. They stated that its production output has now surpassed the nation’s daily consumption.

The Group Chief Branding and Communications Officer of Dangote Industries Limited, Anthony Chiejina, in a statement, said the refinery was currently loading over 45 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit and 25 million litres of diesel daily, volumes that exceed the country’s demand. “Our refinery is currently loading over 45 million litres of PMS and 25 million litres of diesel daily, which exceeds Nigeria’s demand,” he said.

These domestic assurances may have encouraged the Federal Government to consider slamming a 15 per cent import duty on all imported refined petrol and diesel products. Recall that on October 30, 2025, The PUNCH reported the approval of President Bola Tinubu to introduce a 15 per cent ad-valorem import duty on petrol and diesel imports into Nigeria.

In a letter dated October 21, 2025, reported publicly on October 30, 2025, and addressed to the Federal Inland Revenue Service and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, Tinubu directed immediate implementation of the tariff as part of what the government described as a “market-responsive import tariff framework.”

The initiative was aimed at protecting local refineries and stabilising the downstream market, but it is likely to raise pump prices. However, following push-back from operators and concerns over supply stability, the policy was reversed and its implementation suspended until the first quarter of 2026.

The newly released data has now laid bare the true state of the industry, revealing that Dangote Refinery still fell short of the required supply targets in the same month the government announced the import tax.

The regulator explained that domestic supply volumes were computed from disport or discharged figures combined with refinery truck-outs, while import volumes were based on shore-receipt data from depots. It added that the figures were reconciled for the period between August 2024 and September 2025, noting that October data was still being finalised.

“Domestic supply volumes are based on disport/discharged figures + refinery truck-outs. Import volumes are based on shore receipt figures at depots. This data is based on reconciliation for Aug. 2024-Sep. 2025. October data yet to be reconciled,” it said.

Figures from the NMDPRA also provided a clearer picture of the Dangote Refinery’s performance over one year. Between October 2024 and October 2025, the refinery supplied an average of 18.03 million litres of PMS per day, barely half of its planned daily output of 35 million litres.

The shortfall highlights the widening gap between projected and actual production at the 650,000-barrel-per-day facility, whose ramp-up has been closely tied to the government’s push to cut dependence on imported fuel. The plant had projected 35 million litres/day, but between October 2024 and October 2025, it averaged 18.03 million litres/day, less than 52 per cent of its target.

The latest performance marks one of the refinery’s weakest supply months since February, when it achieved its highest contribution of 25 million litres/day, meeting 49 per cent of national requirements at the time.

A month-by-month breakdown of domestic supply shows that the Dangote Refinery’s petrol output has fluctuated widely since it entered the market in September 2024. Regulatory data indicate that the refinery began with a modest three million litres per day in its first month of operation, before ramping up to 10 million litres per day in October and nine million litres in November.

Output climbed steadily towards the end of 2024, reaching about 9.5 million litres per day in December, and then surged to 18 million litres daily in January 2025. The refinery recorded its highest performance in February 2025, supplying 25 million litres per day, its strongest showing and the closest it came to meeting half of the country’s petrol demand.

However, the momentum softened in subsequent months. Supply dipped to 23 million litres per day in March and 22 million litres in April, followed by another drop to 18 million litres in May and about 16.5 million litres in June. The refinery recovered slightly to 19.8 million litres in July but slipped again to 17.6 million litres in August.

By September and October 2025, Dangote’s output had stabilised at 17.1 million litres per day, significantly below its planned 35-million-litre daily supply target and insufficient to close the widening gap in national petrol demand.

Commenting, the President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, Billy Gillis‑Harry, said the association remains fully supportive of the Dangote Refinery project, but insists that the latest industry data confirms Nigeria is still far from achieving adequate in-country production to meet daily petrol demand.

“We are not against Dangote at any time. We want the refinery to succeed because it would be the best thing to happen to this country and to Africa,” the PETROAN President told The PUNCH.

“However, our position is that every part of the industry should be growing just as the refinery is growing. Every part of the industry should add value and contribute its quota to the growth of our economy.”

He noted that despite the refinery’s efforts, the data released by the regulator shows that current domestic output is not yet sufficient to meet national consumption. “The reality is that at this time, we cannot say there is enough in-country production to meet our daily demands. But we still need to patronise Dangote to encourage the refinery,” he said.

The PETROAN official added that the figures in the report justify the association’s earlier warning that petrol prices would have risen sharply if the Federal Government had proceeded with the proposed 15 per cent import duty on refined petroleum products.

“This data just confirms the price increase we predicted if the government had gone ahead with the 15 per cent import duty tariff,” he said.

The report also shows a significant decline in national petrol sufficiency. While Nigeria maintained an average of 20 days of PMS sufficiency between October and December 2024, sufficiency crashed to 9 days in October 2025, comprising 7 days of inland stock and 2 days of marine stock.

This worsening trend increases the risk of supply shocks in the event of import delays, bad weather at ports, or forex disruptions. Diesel and aviation fuel, however, recorded more comfortable sufficiency levels at 38 days and 35 days, respectively.