As Nigeria inches toward the 2027 general elections, political rhetoric is rising, but policy depth appears scarce. In this wide-ranging interview, former President of the Nigerian Bar Association, Dr Olisa Agbakoba, SAN, dissects the nation’s fiscal crisis, oil sovereignty, electoral reform, insecurity and the shallow nature of partisan politics.

He argues that Nigeria’s problems are less about scarcity of resources and more about poor architecture — fiscal, legal and institutional.

On Executive Orders and the Petroleum Industry Act

There has been controversy over the President’s Executive Order and its relationship with the Petroleum Industry Act, PIA. Can an Executive Order override an Act of the National Assembly?

Two clear pathways exist. First, the Attorney-General should approach the court for constitutional interpretation. The issue is straightforward: to what extent are certain provisions of the PIA, especially those affecting revenue, consistent with Section 44(3) of the Constitution? The courts can settle that quickly.

Second, the National Assembly can amend the PIA to remove ambiguities, particularly regarding the role of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, NNPC.

Let it be clear: NNPC should operate strictly as a commercial oil company, no more than companies like Seplat or Mobil. It should not combine regulatory and commercial powers. Policy should rest with the Minister of Petroleum. Regulatory agencies should regulate. NNPC should drill and sell.

The bigger issue concerns sovereignty over oil. Section 44(3) vests ownership of Nigeria’s mineral resources in the Federal Government. However, through joint venture agreements, we have effectively ceded significant control to international oil companies. They play both commercial and quasi-ownership roles.

We pay what is called “cash calls,” sometimes up to 60 percent, based on figures we barely interrogate. Meanwhile, revenue leakages in shipping and lifting go unchecked. That is why I commend indigenous capacity initiatives like those by Allen Onyema of Air Peace. We need similar national control in shipping crude.

Saudi Arabia does not surrender ownership of its crude oil. Foreign firms operate commercially but do not dictate ownership structures. Nigeria must return to that model. If we do not, we will continue borrowing to fund roads, hospitals and schools when the resources are already ours.

Tinubu sets stage for comprehensive PIA review after executive revenue reset
DESPITE NAIRA REBOUND, TINUBU REFORMS… On Fiscal Reform and Revenue Architecture

You have argued that Nigeria’s fiscal crisis is self-inflicted. What exactly is wrong with our budgeting and revenue system?

The fundamental problem is that the budget has become an avenue for padding rather than development. Before spending, a government must determine how it will raise funds. Nigeria does the reverse — it spends first and borrows later.

We have valuable federal assets lying idle. For example, government properties in prime locations sit unused for decades. Monetise them. Sell non-performing assets and reinvest in infrastructure — hospitals, schools, housing.

Secondly, Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) must stop behaving like independent revenue centres. Agencies such as Customs and NIMASA are service entities. Their job is enforcement and regulation, not revenue generation.

All revenue should flow into a single federal account. MDAs should not retain earnings. Once you strip agencies of the incentive to hoard revenue, they will focus on service delivery.

Nigeria can surpass N500 trillion in annual revenue if leakages are blocked and collection centralised. The issue is not absence of money. It is fragmentation and lack of accountability.

On Privatising NNPC and Oil Sovereignty

You have long advocated restructuring or privatising NNPC. Would that not weaken Nigeria’s sovereign control over oil?

On the contrary, it would strengthen sovereignty. For decades, NNPC functioned as a discretionary funding arm for political elites. Presidents could draw funds with minimal transparency. That culture entrenched opacity.

Transforming NNPC into a fully commercial entity is one of the boldest reforms undertaken under President Bola Tinubu. The internal resistance within NNPC has always been powerful. Breaking that culture is not easy.

But sovereignty lies in policy control, not operational micromanagement. Government should set policy, collect royalties and taxes, and allow commercially viable firms to operate.

Look at the challenges faced by indigenous industrialists like Aliko Dangote in refining. Entrenched import cartels resist local capacity. That resistance reflects the old system where opaque interests thrived.

If Nigeria allows market competition, strengthens transparency, and removes regulatory overlap, sovereignty improves — not declines.

On housing, mortgages and capital formation. You have also spoken about housing reform. Why is this important?

Because Nigeria is sitting on a dead capital market. The property market is worth trillions, possibly over a quadrillion naira in value, yet it does not contribute meaningfully to capital formation.

About 95 percent of housing stock lacks proper title documentation. Without valid Certificates of Occupancy, banks cannot extend mortgage credit.

In the UK, governments have intervened to stimulate mortgage markets. Under Margaret Thatcher, housing ownership became a political rallying point. She asked voters: do you want to remain tenants or become homeowners?

Nigeria needs legal reform to streamline title registration, eliminate forged documents and reduce bureaucratic delays. Once property titles are secure, banks can lend, citizens can build equity, and the economy gains liquidity.

On Abuja Council elections and political violence. There were allegations of manipulation during recent FCT council elections and reports of violence in Edo. What is your view?

Our politics lacks substance. Instead of debating housing reform, fiscal policy or security strategy, politicians attend ceremonies and trade accusations.

Opposition parties complain of defections, but defections reflect internal weakness. If governors leave your party, examine your leadership.

Campaigns should be issue-driven. Nigerians want solutions. Instead, we see vote-buying, thuggery and litigation.

On electronic transmission of results. Would real-time upload of results solve electoral disputes?

No. Technology is not a substitute for quality leadership. When teams lose football matches, they blame referees. Score goals first.

The deeper problem is absence of policy engagement. I have not heard any serious policy debate from any major politician. None.

Campaigns should involve grassroots engagement, like Barack Obama’s model — explaining policies house-to-house. Instead, we see reactive politics centred on court petitions.

On insecurity and foreign intervention, insecurity continues to attract global attention. What is your assessment?

The first question is: what is Nigeria’s security doctrine? Security architecture must integrate intelligence — human, signals, satellite and drone surveillance. Modern conflicts are intelligence-driven.

President Tinubu once remarked that Sambisa Forest is visible from the air when landing in Yola. If that is so, why does it remain an abstraction? With drone technology, surveillance and precise operations are possible.

Other countries deploy intelligence-led strikes effectively. The issue may not be lack of resources but outdated coordination.

We reportedly have millions displaced internally. That is unacceptable for a nation of Nigeria’s stature.

Security reform must precede 2027. Without it, elections occur in a fragile environment.

On Electoral Reform and the Uwais Report, if you chaired an electoral reform committee today, what radical steps would you propose?

Implement the recommendations of the Justice Uwais Electoral Reform Committee established by the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. The burden of proof in election petitions is excessively high. A petitioner must produce evidence from thousands of polling units. That is impractical.

The electoral umpire, INEC, should not be the active defender of election results. As referee, INEC should present records impartially. Once substantial allegations arise, the onus should shift to INEC to demonstrate compliance with procedures.

Secondly, establish an Electoral Offences Commission to prosecute rigging and violence. The recommendation has existed since 2008. Implementation remains stalled because political elites benefit from impunity.

Yar’Adua admitted flaws in his own election and sought reform. Unfortunately, his death halted momentum.

Without a credible electoral system, capable professionals will avoid politics. Politics then becomes a marketplace for money, not ideas.

On 2027 polls

As 2027 approaches, Nigerians are waiting for visionary leadership. The country is not poor; it is poorly structured.

We must transition from a borrowing-based fiscal system to a funding-based model. Centralise revenue collection. Reform oil governance. Unlock housing capital. Modernise security architecture. Implement electoral accountability.

Above all, politicians must articulate clear, measurable policy proposals.

Right now, I have not heard one serious policy debate from any leading contender.

Nigeria is ready for change. The question is whether its political class is ready to rise to the occasion.