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Politics of Wednesday, 14 July 2021

Source: www.sunnewsonline.com

2023: Issues as Nigeria enters season of defections

Active politicians in Nigeria Active politicians in Nigeria

Ahead of the 2023 general elections, the nation is gradually but steadily entering a season of intrigues even as politicians get set for the game they know how to play. As it appears, defection from one political party to another is turning out to be their most potent instrument of alignments and realignments.

The public space is increasingly dominated by all manner of permutations, and commentaries on political events have become a major preoccupation of many. But some argue that since the emergence of the current democratic experiment in 1999, politicians have failed to show a clear understanding of what party manifestoes and ideology mean.

What reinforces this opinion is the ease and rate at which elected politicians dump the party on which platform they rose to power for another party, often the ruling party, for reasons ranging from the mundane to the ridiculous. Currently, the victim is the PDP which is the major opposition party whose member are moving in droves to the ruling party, APC. 

However, although some people have expressed fear that the trend, if unchecked, could lead to a one-party state, close watchers of political developments in Nigeria over the years, think otherwise. They insist that such political behaviour has become a normal occurrence, especially when a new election cycle is around the corner.

Many critical observers contend though that politics without ideology as has been demonstrated by politicians in Nigeria so far could only weaken the system rather than strengthen it.

Journey down memory lane

On August 31, 2013, barely two years before the 2015 general election, seven sitting governors on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) staged a walkout at the party’s special convention ground in Abuja, converged on another venue and formed a parallel leadership. The new party included defectors like the former vice president, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, former governor of Kwara State, Bukola Saraki, and then-Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Tambuwal, among others, was later to be known and called the new-PDP.

Out of the seven governors who included Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers; Aliyu Wamako of Sokoto; Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano; Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara, Murtala Nyako of Adamawa; Babangida Aliyu of Niger, and Sule Lamido of Jigawa, five eventually teamed up with the then opposition APC. Only Governors Aliyu and Lamido remained in the PDP, while the other five governors left for the APC, in what was described as the mother of all defections. That singular action, analysts believe, led to the defeat of the PDP in that election, with the opposition APC emerging victorious; a development many found difficult to believe as it was the first time in Nigeria’s history that an opposition candidate would defeat and unseat an incumbent president.

Also, ahead of the 2019 general elections, politicians again travelled a similar route. Setting the stage was the former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, who in a volte-face dumped the APC again and eventually rejoined his former party, the PDP in December 2017. He regretted that the issues that forced him to leave PDP for APC had become even worse in his new party and that the PDP had resolved all the issues that forced him out in the first place. He said that when APC approached him to join it in 2013, the struggle for democracy, constitutionalism and service to Nigeria and Nigerians were the factors that informed his decision to accept the invitation. Rejoining the PDP, he said the complaints he had with the party on which platform he was vice president for eight years, had been resolved, thus laying the groundwork for his return.

In the same vein, the defection of the Benue State Governor, Samuel Ortom from the ruling APC to the opposition PDP, equally hit the ruling party like a thunderbolt. Ortom had, in July 2018, defected from the APC to the PDP after several weeks of speculation. He said after wide consultations with his people, they had unanimously endorsed that his stay in the APC had expired and advised that he sought another platform as they would follow him.

In August 2018, just one month after Ortom dumped the APC for the PDP, and barely nine months after Atiku travelled the same route, the then number three man in the APC government, and Senate President, Dr Bukola Saraki, again left the ruling APC for the PDP alongside his state governor, Abdulfatah Ahmed. The former Senate President stated that his decision to dump the ruling party was unavoidably imposed on him by certain elements within the party, who have ensured that the minimum conditions for peace and a general sense of belonging did not exist.

As APC was still nursing the bloody nose inflicted upon it by the trio of Ortom, Saraki and Ahmed, the Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal, also dished out a deadly stroke on the party; he dumped the ruling party for the opposition PDP in the same August, citing ineffectiveness on the part of the president as his reason. He said the president had failed the nation and should be voted out.

On Friday, June 19, 2020, the Edo State Governor, Godwin Obaseki also formally joined the PDP after he was disqualified from the APC primary where he wanted to seek reelection. Obaseki was disqualified from the Edo APC gubernatorial primary slated for June 22, 2020, following his disagreements with the then national chairman of the party and former governor of Edo State, Adams Oshiomhole. After his disqualification, Obaseki said he would pursue his ambition for a second term in another platform, hence, his defection to PDP barely three months to the Edo governorship election, which was held on September 19, 2020.

Again, barely two years to the 2023 general elections, politicians have already started rolling up their sleeves in preparation for the epic battle of power acquisition and retention. The wind of party defection is sweeping across the political space and politicians have started aligning and realigning for the sole purpose of grabbing power and remaining relevant while the electorate watches helplessly.

The Ebonyi State Governor, Dave Umahi was the first to upset the applecart when he dumped the PDP for the APC last year. Political analysts, particularly those from the South East, saw the governor’s action as a desperate move to secure his political future, even though he cited injustice to the South East by PDP as one of the reasons for his action. The governor had alleged that the party had been unfair to the zone, despite having the late Vice President Alex Ekwueme as a foundation member.

Two PDP governors have followed Umahi’s footsteps, bringing to three the number that has so far defected to the ruling party ahead of the 2023 general election. The governors are Professor Ben Ayade of Cross River State and his Zamfara State counterpart, Bello Matawalle.

Ayade, whose planned defection was severally reported in the media over the years, finally dumped PDP for the ruling party in May, citing President Muhammadu Buhari’s sterling performances, as well as the realisation that his state has been emasculated economically following the ceding of its oil well and the need to be in sync with the party at the centre, as his reasons.

Although analysts believe Ayade lost out of the power game regarding who controls the PDP structure in his state, the governor insisted that it was majorly Buhari’s wonderful performance that informed his decision to join the APC. Matawalle who became the governor of Zamfara following a Supreme Court’s judgment on the internal squabble that rocked the APC primaries in 2019, defected to the APC last week. He did not give any specific reason for his action; he only said he was defecting for several reasons, even when he was quoted to have sworn that he would never dump the PDP and even went ahead to invite the wrath of Allah if he ever did that.

The PDP through its spokesperson, Kola Ologbondiyan, has reacted to the development saying all the governors defecting to the APC were doing so under intimidation, as none of them had issues with the party.

However, the defection virus does not only affect the governors; it is a cankerworm that has affected all politicians, both the elected and the unelected from local, state and federal levels of governance.

NASS members also involved

Last year, Senator Ishaku Clifford from Adamawa State defected from the PDP to the APC. Also last week, Senator Muhammad Hassan Gusau from Zamfara State defected from the opposition PDP to the ruling APC, citing the collapse of internal democracy and factionalisation of the PDP as his reason. Senator Peter Nwaoboshi from Delta State equally defected last week from the PDP to the APC. It is alleged that Senators Lawali Alkali, representing Zamfara West; Sahabi Ya’u, representing Zamfara North; and Stephen Odey, representing Cross River North in the Senate; are already at the departure lounge of defection to the ruling party. There is fear that by the time the current gale of defection is over, PDP which started with 44 senators in 2019 will be left with 37 members, while that of the APC would have increased from 66 to 71.

Also, two members of the House of Representatives from Cross River State, Legor Idagbo, and Michael Etaba, equally defected from the PDP to the ruling APC recently, citing crisis rocking the PDP leadership in their state as the reason. There was also a media report last week that over 150 APC members in Kuje area of the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, defected to the PDP.

The recurring development has thrown up different schools of thought on what could actually be responsible for the unrestrained mobility of politicians from one party to the other, particularly when an election year is around the corner.

The country’s 1999 constitution as amended provides that a candidate of a political party can only defect to another party when there is a clear case of intractable division within the party.

However, analysts are of the view that this has not been the case in Nigeria, as most politicians move from one party to the other solely for their personal interest; not necessarily that their party suffer any kind of crisis.

Those who hold this view support their argument with the current gale of defections by some governors to the ruling party which most Nigerians have described as a failure. In spite of rising unemployment with its attendant hunger and starvation, galloping inflation, rising insecurity with killings everywhere in the country, kidnapping, banditry and all kinds of social ills plaguing the country, some politicians are still bold to justify their defection to the ruling party on grounds of good performance.

There are those who have argued that the current crop of politicians lacks principle and integrity. This lack of personal principle, according to them, is exacerbated by the fact that political parties don’t have an ideology. Unlike what obtains in civilized climes where parties are distinguished along with ideologies, there is no distinction between the ruling APC and the opposition PDP or other parties, and that is why it is easy for politicians to jump from one party to the other because they are one and the same.

Yet, there are those who agreed with the PDP that most of the defectors were intimidated to do so. They stressed that coercion has become a veritable tool that the ruling party deploys to woo sitting governors into their camp. According to this school of thought, the practice did not start with the APC; it also happened when PDP was the ruling party.

There are others who believe that defection is also a way of avoiding prosecution. The proponent of this idea would point to a statement allegedly credited to the former National Chairman of APC, Adams Oshiomhole, who once said ‘if you are under prosecution for financial malfeasance, your sins would be forgiven once you join the ruling APC.’ To this segment of Nigerians, nothing can be truer than the statement, considering the way and manner the governors are defecting. “They have skeletons in their cupboards and they are afraid of prosecution, so, to get their sins forgiven, all they needed to do was to cross over to the ruling party and that is what most of them are doing. Many more will still defect either to avoid prosecution or to secure their political future,” he stated.

Is Nigeria, one-party bound?

Some people are afraid that with the way politicians are defecting to the ruling party, Nigeria might well be on its way to a one-party state. But, some analysts don’t agree with the assumption. They believe that what is happening has come to be part of politicking in Nigeria. They stressed that it is always the situation when the country is approaching an election year. “The 2023 election is the reason behind what is happening. Nobody wants to be left in the cold. They all want to remain relevant after 2023. So, what you see happening is a struggle to secure their political future and they believe that only the ruling party can guarantee that,” they noted.

Those who believe that most of the defectors, particularly the governors, are coerced into doing that would want to buttress their stand with the way party affairs are run in Nigeria. They argued that in civilized democracies, a member of a political party could still be in the party and criticise it when it takes a wrong step; an action that is unpardonable in Nigeria.

Then, there are those who believe that what is happening is nothing but greed. They argue that politicians are greedy and want what would benefit them rather than what will be of public interest.

Much as the defecting governors have tried to adduce reasons they think were cogent enough to convince Nigerians on the desirability of their action, their arguments never sank in with some people. They would rather the governors told their tales to the marine because they are all seen as people fighting for their personal, selfish interest as against the public interest, which they are mouthing.

For the former governor of Anambra State, Dr Chukwuemeka Ezeife, the former APC chairman, Oshiomhole has told the whole truth. “Your sins will be forgiven once you join the ruling party because most of the governors have skeletons in their cupboards. Once you talk against the government, they will show you your file. So, most governors are defecting solely to escape from their sins and avoid prosecution,” he added.

He lamented that the country lacks politicians with conscience and that is why comprehensive corruption has become the order of the day. “Today in Nigeria, politics is a matter of where to get money and not how to get it. It doesn’t matter how you get it but where you get it. They don’t defect for the public interest; they do so for their own interest and self-preservation,” he said.

President of the Middle Belt Forum, Dr Pogu Bitrus, also agreed that defection has become so rife because political parties lack an ideological bent. He stressed that rather than party ideologies, it is the individual politician’s performance that determines who is better than the other.

He also agreed that governors defecting to the ruling party are those who have skeletons in their cupboards, and who want to avoid prosecution. “Those defecting have something to hide. Defection is all about personal interest; there is no public interest. Politicians are only after making more money and more names, and that is why they can do anything and spend any amount of money to get there; it is just for their personal gain,” he said.

Former General Secretary of the National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG), Chief Frank Kokori, also decried the lack of ideology in Nigerian politics, saying, “Unlike the British Labour or Conservative party, where ideology guides membership, Nigeria’s case is a politics of bread and butter; there is no ideology, so they cross-carpet.

“In the case of Matawalle, he has no option but to defect. You know he was a distant second person in the 2019 election; so there is no way he will win the election in 2023 if he doesn’t cross over to the ruling party.

“As for Ayade, he has always been a friend of Buhari. He has always praised him to high heaven right from day one; he does not work with other PDP governors in the South-South region. And for Nwaoboshi, he is so close to the powers that be; he doesn’t want to leave his position as the Niger Delta Committee Chairman in the Senate, so he crossed.

“The same thing applies to Governor Umahi. Most politicians always look for a comfortable zone; they are defecting for their own selfish end; not that they love APC,” he said.

However, he also lamented that the development could only erode the non-existent democracy instead of adding value to it, even as he stressed the need for opposition at all times.

President, Arewa Youths Consultative Forum, Yerima Shettima, does not see anything strange in the development; rather he said it is an opportunity for Nigerians to know the mindset of politicians as selfish and inconsistent people.

He charged Nigerians to concentrate on the character of people who will seek their votes in 2023; and not their political parties.

He also believes that politicians defect mainly to avoid prosecution and to ensure a continued grip on power.

He equally does not believe that defection will lead to a one party-state because according to him, some people in APC will still move to the PDP when the election draws closer.

For the Chairman, Social Democratic Party (SDP), Chief Supo Shonibare, it is not surprising that politicians still gravitate towards the ruling party despite the party’s woeful performance as can be evidenced in the deteriorating security, political and economic situation in Nigeria. “This is because they do not rely on popular votes to remain in power. They expect electoral manipulations, which they believe, will be better enabled and guided from the centre.”